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2022 Summary

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Went through 2022 without any updates. But I have another year of data, so we can do year by year comparison to see if anything changed significantly. According to NREL (recall that is the government agency that made the PVWatts software), the median solar panels lose 0.5% efficiency per year. Hmm, that doesn’t sound like too much. Below is my 2021 total output of 7,132 kWh.  Taking 0.5% of that, is 36 kWh, which is just over a day of peak production in the summer or 1.5 days in the winter. Not much. A rainy day or two.   No way we could confirm efficiency loss in year 2. Weather is a much bigger uncertainty. But we have?  data now, so let’s crunch the numbers and see if we showed any loss in production. Below is is 2022 monthly and annual production.  Not much to crunch, 2022 output was higher than 2021 by 1.8%. So much for degradation analysis by looking at annual production. Going back to our original PVWatts output prediction, we can see if year 2 was any more or less agreeable tha

October to December 2021

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6 months later and finally have time to review 2021. Quick quarterly review before the annual summary. 2021 4th quarter data: October : 612 kWh November : 476 kWh December : 451 Here are the monthly graphs.                      October (PVWatt estimate 541 kW hr)              November (PVWatt estimate 441 kW hr)               December (PVWatt estimate 385 kW hr) So.compared to estimates,  October 13% better than model November 8% better than model December 25% better than model Good way to finish the year!

July to Sept 2021 Summary

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Guess I took the summer off now back at it. Good to see the free energy is still flowing and didn't stop while I was on sabbatical.  Anyway, lets see how the 3rd quarter went.  July: 758.9 kWh August: 757.4 kWh September: 678.6 kWh (Tesla made an app update. Not sure I like it. Some of historical data is gone or hard to find) So.compared to estimates, July and August were 8-9% higher. If we look at the entire year, Predicted:  5553  kWh   Actual:5592 kWh Only 0.7% difference!

June 2021 and 6 Month Summary

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The big month of June came and went. Its the halfway point, so i addition to the June review, we will check in on YTD production. June modeled out at 697 kWh and I said we would beat it last month. And look at that, we did it! June was 777 kWh or 111%. Lots of sun. When the clouds rolled in, it was off and on. I noticed the peak output was down. But the days are long. Due to Sun's movement and the panel orientation, we lose some peak power for the southern string  compared to the spring. Now for the annual check in.... Tesla estimated ~6,622 kwh of annual production. Our PVV model 6,875 kWh. 6 month estimate is half then Tesla=3,311 and BoronCarbon=3,437 kWh How did the system perform? 6 month production=3,398 kWh 103% of Tesla model so far 99% of the BoronCarbon model so far Thats close enough for me. Lets pat Tesla and BoronCarbon (and PVWatts) on the back! Excellent prediction. Discount Link for Tesla Solar https://ts.la/zach38035 #solar #tes

May 2021 Summary

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Into the big stretch. Top three months coming up. May, June, and  July are the big three.  May expected at 679 kWh.  How did we do.....? 640 kWh ! 94% of the model. We had some stellar days. Several over 31 kWh and one over 32 kWh.  We barely underperformed from our predictions. Since we have been down a few months....June will be big. Law of averages.

April 2021 Summary

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Late writing this, but better late then never. We gotta complete the full year. April was estimated to produce 634 kWh. It started well but the middle of the month was a bugger. Pulled in 586  kWh or about 92% of expected. We still put some in the bank though.

March 2021 summary

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March started strong, and it looked like we would stay on production target. March was targettng 622 kWh.   i  But we had some record level storms this month. Including a 19 inch snow event. So we got shut out a few days. On the positive side, we exceeded our consumption for the first time and banked 40 kWh. Peak production was 29.1 kWh. Use my referral link to receive 1,000 free Supercharger miles with the purchase and delivery of a new Tesla car, or earn a $100 award after system activation by purchasing or subscribing to solar panels:  https://ts.la/zach38035

More on the Delta Inverter

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To log into the M-4-TL or M-8-TL inverter,  Open the app while standing very close to the inverter. I stand inside by the window nearest it, maybe three feet away and it finds it automatically. It will prompt you for a code. Enter the 4 digit code to get you logged in. Once you in, this what you see: -3.2 kWh produced today so far -2.776 kW current power output -1732.5 kWh produced since system install (all data in the Tesla app) After that though, its all new stuff. We get the system level AC voltage and AC  current. 247 V and 11.2 {Power=I  * V} P= 11.2 A x 247 V=2.776 kW The string level detail is next. PV1 and PV2 are the DC voltage and current produced by each string. In this case, the real time power from each string is: P1= 7.4 A x 229 V= 1694.6 W P2= 4.4 A x 244 V=  1073.6 W Total P=  2768.2 w or 2.768 kW This data was about 9am. So PV1 must be the Eastern array. Here is the same data near mid day when we are at peak output.  You can see the inveter is putting out a

Closer look at daily theoretical output

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March 1, was a record day. 27.7 kwh produced. All sun, no clouds. I took a deeper dive into the PVWatt model and tried to extract the daily output for that day of the year. The expected array power output was: 8,446 Wh (east) 15,605 Wh ( south) or 24.1 kWh PVWatts has the day estimated at 87% of actual peak output. Whats the difference? I dont know, yet, how PVWatts gets to their annual output vs. their hourly output. Maybe the hourly csv file is approximated from a continuous solar curve? Well, the PVWatts data file is broken down by  the hour. To get my daily PVwatts number, I summed up the power output for each hour to get a daily Wh estimate. Doing this assumes that the power output stays constant for that hour...which it does not.  This causes an approximation error. Think Riemann sums from Calculus 1. Before you could integrate, you approximated the area under a curve using a sum of rectangles. Like below: This is basically what my summed up PVWatts estimate is doing.

Delta M Inverter, String Level Data

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The Tesla app gives you current power output (kW) and daily production (kWh) for the whole system.  But if you want to know more, like string level voltage and current, error logs, then you need to talk to the inverter. The Delta M inverters connect to the Tesla gateway but they can talk to you via bluetooth if are very  close to the inverter and you have the right Delta app.  It looks like this:   This could be useful if you have any issues and are trying to verify the performance with the Tesla app.  I would not mess with any changable settings in there. Just use it too look at the string level history. Use my referral link to receive 1,000 free Supercharger miles with the purchase and delivery of a new Tesla car, or earn a $100 award after system activation by purchasing or subscribing to solar panels:  https://ts.la/zach38035

Snow removal from Solar Panels

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We got a good 5 inch snow in Feb.  No way to reach up that high and broom them off.  It turns, one side cleaned it self quickly. The south side is at a 40° slope and the east side is 30°. It seems like the general consensus is to leave it be.  *Ladders, hot water, etc.,.skip it. *Leaf blower and pvc pipe...maybe *Telescoping brooms $20-$40, maybe if you can reach it from the ground *Heated systems, sounds expensive to recover a few days of missed winter production Use my referral link to earn a $100 award after system activation by purchasing or subscribing to solar panels:  https://ts.la/zach38035

February 2021 Tesla Solar Summary

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February came and went. Feb and March are the snowiest months out in the front range (i think...only been here a few years). Snow is not good for production. Our PVWatts production estimate/model had us at 460 kWh.  That would be 16.4 kWh / day average. How did we do? We came up a little short. A total of 434 kWh or 15.5 kWh/day. About 5-6% under achieved, so not too bad if you consider it snowed good about 3 times with a string of cloudy days in the middle.   We finished the month on a strong note though. A record production day of 27.6 kWh! Extended time at inverter max power. What will the record output from our Tesla PV system be in March? Did anyone see Starship SN10 land and blowup today? Use my referral link to receive 1,000 free Supercharger miles with the purchase and delivery of a new Tesla car, or earn a $100 award after system activation by purchasing or subscribing to solar panels: https://ts.la/zach38035

January 2021, Solar production exceeds target!

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The end of January came and finished strong. A new record for daily outpt, 22.7 kwh.  The days are getting longer and the sun is moving higher, so this will continue. Yesterday, we were right on the edge (418 kwh) of hitting the PV Watts predicted target of 420 kwh. Today's big day put us over the top to 441 kwh! Way to go Tesla photovoltaic system. We needed to average 13.5 kwh/ day and we did 14.2 kwh/day. On to February...its a short month and the new target is 460 kwh. Thats 16.4 kwh/ day.

January 2021- Solar Output Update

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January 2021 is almost over.Two more days to go...how will we perform against our predictive PVWatts model?  Lower, higher, on targer? We have to wait and find out! Its been a mix of sun , clouds, and a few snow days. In the mean time, I can say output is clearly rising on full sun days. Peak output time is about 1130am now. Outputs are now sustaining 3.3-3.5 kw for an extended time. I have noticed shorter surges to 3.7-3.8 kw. Here is the best day of the month so far, 21.4 kwh.  On this day, our predicted solar AC output was 3.04 kw at 11am. We were doing a steady 3.4 kw though. That's 11.8% higher than expected  Maybe Tesla Solar hooked me up a good production lot! Lets see sunday night if we are close to the 420 kwh target. Well still a positive recommendation for Tesla solar in thebDenver area. Use my referral link to receive 1,000 free Supercharger miles with the purchase and delivery of a new Tesla car, or earn a $100 award after system activation by purchasing or

First Month: Tesla Solar Power Production

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It is January 1, so we have a full calender month of data on the Tesla Solar panel system. Time to review, the month against the expected amount. Solar PV System Estimated Monthly Output Using PVWatts, the monthly energy output of our photovoltaic system (PV} is shown below. For December,  PVWatts had our system modeled with a total output of 385 kwh.. Tesla Solar: December system production December in the Denver area started off very sunny. We were killing it with 19-20 kwh days....then some snow and clouds arrived. Zero production for 3 days. Some 5's, 8's, low teens....thats the weather.  Its all plotted out below in the screen shot from the Tesla app. As you can see, we ended up at 387 kwh in december production. Our model had us at 385 kwh. Thats more or less dead on!  A difference of 0.5%! Surely, other months won't be that exact, but we will check it out for sure.

Daily solar PV system output analysis

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We saw how the Tesla planned output compares to our own prediction using PVWatts. That is all theoretical. Time for a reality check...how does actual output compare to what is expected from the system?  Recall, you can extract a daily and hourly breakdown from PVWatts for the entire calender year....And, you can extract the actual system output from the Tesla app. It records about every 15 minutes. Lets see what we get: Here is my system output on Dec 9, 2020. It was about as sunny as you can get all day in the Denver area. So a best cast scenario. We made 19.3 kwh of energy that day. If you download the data into the csv file, you can get the time stamped output. It's in 24-hr format. Here I highlighted two random times: 1045m and 230pm (1430 hrs) that corrrspsond to 3.2 kw and 1.6 kw total system output. Other times are shown too. Now, we can take out our PVWatts files. In my case for East and South: - pull the values for the same date and time -add them t

Solar journey: Design and predicting annual production. Part 2

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Tesla's plan estimated annual production at 6622 kwh. I have not designed a system before nor had one. It is close to what other quotes called out. Aside from waiting a  year to see, is there a way to run the numbers your self? The answer is yes. The National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) has a user friendly site an calculator to help you do this. Its called PVWatts. Link below: https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/ PVWatts requires your location so it can use its database to determine the seasonal average solar radiation (accounting for weather). Once you enter.your location, it is on to.entering the PV  system properties If you have all of your panels in one direction, this easy. In my case, the panels are split between East and South....so I have to enter each half separately, then add them together to get the total  system estimate. PVWatts provides typical default numbers. Here is what I entered using my Southern string as an example: -Half system size=2.78 kw (7 pan

Solar journey: Design and predicting annual production. Part 1

How much energy will you make in a year? Your solar PV (Photovoltaic) system's estimated annual energy productiion should be included in your design plan from your installer. The units are in kwh (kilowatt hours).  If you forgot high school physics, do not confuse this with the panels/system power capabilty. Power is described by  W (Watts) or kW (kilowatts). Energy is described by kilowatt-hours (kwh). To understand annual production, first look at production at a moment in time The number of panels and the panel wattage is one metric of the maximun power that can be produced by all of the panels under peak sun at a moment in time (not in a while day). That assumes all panels are being hit equally. For me that is 14 *340W/panel or 4.76 kW. There are many reasons you may not achieve that maximun power level: -split layout (like mine) that has panels in different locations. In this case, the sun strikes the panels vastly different during the day. -Other shading: trees, clouds, sno

Solar journey...the plan

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Timeline: 2 days after order: Solar layout sent for approval by me. I did not approve it right away. I wondered if I could customize before signing off on it. Timeline: several days after order: Tried texting the given # and emailing the address given to discuss layout and customizing beyond 4kw basic system....no response after a few days so called a bunch of times to reach the PM (project manager). Once I got ahold of him, he was very pleasant  he did say the design could be customized and the cost per watt would not change. They would  look at upsizing to the max allowed (120%) of historical usage....back to design team (updates and communication via text is handy with them) Timeline: ~1-2 weeks after order: Since the first design was so rapid after ordering, I thought redesign would be just as fast. After a few days...nothing. Tried calls to the Project Manager 3 times a day....mailbox was full the first few days so had to keep calling.  (it was expected based on the reviews I rea

Solar journey....Energysage vs Tesla

Energysage quotes vs Tesla The prices quoted from Energysage were all very close. Competitive amongst themselves. The average quote was $3.12/W. For a 4 kw system in 2020 (26% tax credit): Energysage $3.12 x 4kw=$12,480-$3,245(26% credit)= $9,235 or $2.31/W Tesla $1.49 x 4kw= $5,960 #Solar #Tesla #energysage A difference of $3,275. Would you pay 55% more than you need to? 5-10% maybe.... Breakeven in 16 years or 10 years? 10 for me. Considering Tesla?  Use this referral link to get started and get a $100 award from Tesla after activation. https://ts.la/zach38035 #solar #energysage #tesla

Solar panel journey.....on to Tesla

Too busy to shop around? Energysage is a central market place that can pull many quotes from nearby installers and it provides lots of information about going solar.   My quotes from Energysage (Front Range, Colorado) #1 $ 3.10/  watt #2 $3.05/ watt #3 $3.19/watt #4 $3.15/ watt (all prices before tax credit) Several of the follow up calls were aggressive, pushy....salesman.   Some were laid back. I knew what DIY costs were amd Tesla. So these were way too expensive...payback too long. Most played dumb when asked about Tesla pricing. Tesla  was $1.49/watt (after tax credit).  Thats all inclusive (hardware, installation, permitting). How can you not know your competition pricing? One salesman acknowledged and played the local, customer service angle.  Tesla does have quite a bit more negative reviews out there mixed in with some postives.....and poor customer service is a big complaint.... But the price difference is too compelling.... I placed an order with Tesla Online in lat

Solar Panel journey...

Well any major purchase requires due diligence....I solicited several quotes from installers. Energysage can do this for you. https://www.energysage.com/ Keep in mind your system is typically limited by your historical consumption (120%). I do not know if this varies by location. So if you are a miser, you can't just plop in a 12-20kw system....plan ahead and burn some juice for a few months  (mine bitcoin?). If you are handy, consider DIY. I went back and forth with wholesale solar which is now Unbound. Its very doable. The  savings are good and can halve payback time. https://unboundsolar.com/ They were helpful. Never said anything about the 120% rule though. Having a  30ft 40 degree (10/12) pitch stopped me though. google-site-verification:googlebddf70ee9885a3b8.html

Solar panel journey...blog on going solar

 Decided to take the plunge and go solar this year....stay tuned.  Updates on  going solar .....getting quotes, DIY consideration, and ultimately going with a guy named Elon at Tesla. Will do our design review and performance evaluation later. #solar #Tesla #review #solarpanel google-site-verification:googlebddf70ee9885a3b8.html